We examine the accuracy of all available players for whom we can find projections. At least ESPN and Fantasy Sharks have projections up already. - CeeDee Lamb, WR – DAL: 5 catches, 79 yards, 2 TDs. Under our specific league settings the 49ers defense and the redskins def is coming in at picks 29 and 33 respectively…what am i doing wrong? People often like to “go with their gut” when picking players. Herbert has averaged 310 yards passing per game, with 5 TDs and 3 INTs during this three-game span. Let me know how it goes. Higbee remains a mid level TE1 for the season. Isaac – Do you plan on updating your average projections for 2017 any time soon? I’ve used them for a few years now, and the past 2 seasons have been spotty imo. 2nd, has FF become more popular over the years? From my quick studies, it seems like including CBS and Walter Football in the consensus drops accuracy every year. All rights reserved. Drafts coming up, valuable resource in the past. So, while Gage should not be a weekly starter, he’ll be a flex play most weeks and should be rostered in all but the shallowest of leagues. About one-third to one-half of the variance in players’ performance is unexplained by projections. Smith should be viewed as a low end TE1 going forward, and he’s a fine starter as we move forward in 2020. Yes, Yahoo uses the same projections as PFF. Weights were based on historical accuracy. - Justin Herbert, QB – LAC: 20-25, 290 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. In the FF context, given how well you believe the players will do and the myriad of team-building constraints your team has to obey, what's the best team possible? Projections over-estimated players’ performance by about 4–10 points every year across most positions (based on mean error). The UCLA alumnus runs with power, inviting contact and continuing to push forward. Speaking of disappointing the last few years, welcome back to the summit, Mr. Odell Beckham! Fantistics was the first football website to introduce the theory of position scarcity to the draft day ritual in 1999. Gibson runs very skilled routes out of the backfield and has great hands, which popped to the tune of four catches and 82 yards against what’s also a tough Ravens’ pass D. JD McKissic remains in the picture for WFT as a third down back, so Gibson won’t dominate the pass catching RB role – note that per PFF, Gibson had 31 snaps versus 39 for McKissic. What these are exactly, I'm not sure, but I'm sure seasoned FF players have some heuristics and/or rules of thumb to build good teams. Get waiver wire picks, up-to-date rankings, strategy tips, & sleeper advice. find some examples of late-breaking depth chart changes and see which sites responded (e.g. Each week we throw out potential free agent pickups from each position for deeper leagues, in each case 1) someone who has NOT been featured above, and 2) a player available in more than 50% of leagues. We’ll focus on the former in this section. As with any rookie QB, Herbert will make mistakes (see the 3 INTs), but he will continue to progress linearly, and will be a factor in the 2020 fantasy football season. I am not interested in metrics based on the distribution of aggregated projections (as your floors/ceilings are), but rather the actual outcome distribution. Each week we take a closer look at a handful of performances and sort out what such performances mean going forward. Week 2 brought about several exciting games, along with too many serious injuries. Example: Leonard Fournette, Here’s are some of the QB, RB, WR missing??? play calling, chasing deficits, putrid o-lines, etc.). With star TE Noah Fant also out for at least the next few weeks, Patrick will continue to hold down the fort as a pass catching option with fellow WR Jerry Jeudy. My motivation for putting this together came from several questions I received from students who take my class. I wondered if there was a reason why Numberfire fell off the list of sites? It’s time for something new, and I’m posting here because I believe you are one of the few sites who could pull it off. I noticed the same thing for week 2 (last week, Friday), however pulling up week 2 weightings today, Yahoo and Fantasy Sharks are both included. - D’Ernest Johnson, RB – CLE: 13 carries, 95 yards, 0 TDs. Combining sources of projections removes some of their individual judgment biases (error) and gives us a more accurate fantasy projection. 2 Overall Pick Quinton Byfield To Three-Year Contract, Flames Re-Sign Andrew Mangiapane To Two-Year, $4.85M Deal, Rangers Agree To Sign DeAngelo, Geogiev To Two-Year Deals, Senators Sign Evgenii Dadonov To Three-Year, $15M Deal. Look for Beckham’s performances to continue to trend upward, as the team’s new offensive scheme and the improved offensive line will lift all boats in Cleveland. The simple average (mean) was more accurate than the robust average. Different sites provide projections for different players. Analysis: It’s officially Antonio Gibson SZN! This may be because we include more sources of projections. © Copyright 2010-2020 FantasyPros.com This would help me to do analysis that actually fits most closely with what I do practically (looking for accuracy only among those players who I might legitimately draft). - AJ Green, WR – CIN: 3 catches, 29 yards, 0 TDs. Hi Isaac, the projection tool doesn’t save my league and scoring settings beyond the session in which I’m using it – e.g. Isaac! All content is posted anonymously by employees working at Fantasy Football Analytics. We also calculate our historical accuracy with multiple advanced statistical metrics to allow users to examine our accuracy and compare it to others. Perhaps most importantly, Robinson dominated the carries’ tally for the Jags, with his 16 dwarfing the next highest number, 5 by swiss army knife Laviska Shenault. I'll take a listen. 3. We hope our projections continue to improve in the future; at the same time, the evidence suggests that these are the most accurate projections available. FantasyFootballNerd projections include only their free projections (not their full subscription projections). About Blog Fantasy Football at Razzball is a fantasy football blog dedicated to providing usable tips, advice and commentary for winning your fantasy football league.Frequency 5 posts / day Since Jul 2009 Blog football.razzball.com Facebook fans 6.2K ⋅ Twitter followers 19.1K ⋅ Social Engagement 2 ⓘ ⋅ Domain Authority 54 ⓘ ⋅ Alexa Rank 130.9K ⓘ View Latest Posts ⋅ Get Email Contact Given that they have a track record of diluting the consensus accuracy year in and year out, my guess is that they are categorically inaccurate. You can download the historical projections and performance using our Projections tool. In prior posts, we demonstrated how to download projections from numerous sources, calculate custom projections for your league, and compare the accuracy of different sources of projections (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016). Tyler Boyd has taken over as the team’s number 1 WR. We are always looking for users to submit their projections (with whatever weights they want) to see if they are more accurate. Last but not least, top 2 overall tight end George Kittle returned to the 49ers and caught a mind blowing 15 passes for 183 yards and a TD in a losing effort against the Eagles. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! If you doubt my premise, take a look at Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst, Noah Fant, among others. Obviously, they're only as good as the underlying projections model. The guy hawking his CD at the mall? Analysis: The Dallas Cowboys have limped out of the gate to a 1-3 record. Once you factor in draft capital used to select a mid-level tight end with a fifth to seventh round pick, then the benefit of waiting to draft your tight end becomes crystal clear. Great stuff as usual. In the latest version of our annual series, we hold the forecasters accountable and see who had the most and least accurate fantasy football projections over the last 5 years. Subscription sources are not more accurate than free sources of projections, and may actually be less accurate: Once you have a good idea of what you think will happen (in the context of FF, you have a forecast for points scored by a player), then prescriptive comes into play: it uses the numbers you computed to prescribe a course of action. The chocolate tray in front of See's? - Tim Patrick, WR – DEN: 6 catches, 113 yards, 1 TD. Given the lack of offseason camps and a truncated preseason, rookie WRs have faced a tall order in being ready to contribute to their teams. If I sent you an email about the fantasy projections for the 4 for 4 fantasy website could you look at it and factor it in into your projections for 2017 season? And let us know if you find something interesting! Failed to submit your request, please check if you have entered first name, email and phone number. View the latest fantasy football articles and advice for Player Analysis. Perhaps most importantly, QB Dak Prescott has targeted Lamb a whopping 29 times over these four games – showing that Lamb’s strong start to the season is no fluke. Robinson has locked down the starting RB job for Duvall, and he’s a low end RB2 going forward, adjustable higher and lower based on matchups. Hi Isaac – are you using the same n of players when calculating the metrics for all sources? i.e., will Yahoo and Fantasy Sharks projections be included in the weightings closer to Sunday? The rows represent the different sources of predictions (e.g., ESPN, CBS) and the columns represent the different measures of accuracy for the last five years and the average across years. We’re here though because Chubb suffered an MCL injury against the Cowboys after 6 carries, and he’ll likely be out several weeks.